Analysis of the impact of the European Union - Vietnam free trade agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's steel import: the application of SMART model

Phan Thanh Anh Quoc (2024) Analysis of the impact of the European Union - Vietnam free trade agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's steel import: the application of SMART model. Külkereskedelmi Kar.

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Absztrakt (kivonat)

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of tariff reduction under the European-Vietnam free trade agreement on the importation of steel from the European Union to Vietnam. The assessment is done by considering two distinct scenarios and applying the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) model. The findings indicate that the elimination of tariffs by Vietnam on steel imports from the EU would not lead to a substantial rise in imports from the EU and that the EU would continue to be a potential Vietnam's supplier of steel despite Vietnam's attempts to integrate with ASEAN + 1 (ASEAN – China Free Trade Agreement) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). In addition, it is possible that there is an unequal distribution in the growth of imports and their associated products from the EU into Vietnam. Accordingly, studies indicate that the trade creation impact is likely less than the trade diversion effect with the implementation of EVFTA exclusively. Based on the outcomes presented, the paper argues that it is necessary for both the Vietnamese government and steel enterprises to acknowledge the significance of the EVFTA and its effect on the steel sectors. Furthermore, it is crucial for them to recognize the disparate distribution of Vietnam's import alterations from the European Union, both in terms of nation and product, in order to formulate suitable business and investment strategies. In conclusion, it is recommended that Vietnam strategically enhance its involvement in the steel industry by fostering integration with all groups of nations, particularly ASEAN and China. This approach aims to mitigate the trade diversion effect and enhance Vietnam's overall welfare. However, it is crucial for Vietnam to take caution and carefully assess the timing of tariff removal for each group to prevent any unexpected surge in steel imports.

Intézmény

Budapesti Gazdasági Egyetem

Kar

Külkereskedelmi Kar

Tanszék

Nemzetközi Gazdaságtan Tanszék

Tudományterület/tudományág

NEM RÉSZLETEZETT

Szak

Nemzetközi gazdálkodás

Mű típusa:	diplomadolgozat (NEM RÉSZLETEZETT)
Kulcsszavak:	EU, EVFTA, import, trade, Vietnam
SWORD Depositor:	Archive User
Felhasználói azonosító szám (ID):	Archive User
Rekord készítés dátuma:	2024. Szep. 26. 07:59
Utolsó módosítás:	2024. Szep. 26. 07:59

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