Europe and the Tech Cold War - The Impact of the U.S.-China Conflict on the Economy, Defence Policy and Digital Strategy of the European Union

Wiesenmayer Teodóra (2020) Europe and the Tech Cold War - The Impact of the U.S.-China Conflict on the Economy, Defence Policy and Digital Strategy of the European Union. Külkereskedelmi Kar.

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Absztrakt (kivonat)

Contemporary history, similarly to the second half of the 20th century, can be defined in terms of bipolarity. The two superpowers, namely the U.S. and China are the primary agents of the opposition, and the rest of the world includes entities caught in the middle of the rivalry. In many cases they are the strategic allies of either superpower. The place of the European Union as a supranational organisation is of key importance in this confrontation; however, it cannot be treated as a single entity in this context. Its member states, along with other European countries outside the Union, apply their own policies that are based on their interests. Therefore, one of the EU’s greatest challenges is to find a common policy against the dominance of the two superpowers. In spite of the ideological or cultural antagonisms between the two rivals, the main source of conflict is the quest for economic and technological dominance. The greatest difference between the 20th-century Cold War and its 21st-century counterpart is that in the latter the two superpowers are each other’s trading partners and their economies are interdependent. The latest wave of globalisation resulted in a more intricate web of relations among countries, thus the U.S. and China cannot pursue a policy of isolationism, nor can they isolate countries from each other the way the Iron Curtain divided the two hemispheres. The member states of the European Union have diverse interests in both countries, moreover, they have no common position regarding the new power relations. Due to their NATO membership most EU countries are unequivocally America’s allies, still, these countries – in varying degrees – have strong economic ties with both China and the United States. As a consequence of the 17+1 initiative, China’s economic presence seems to be greater in Central and Eastern European countries but Western European countries also rely heavily on Chinese investments. China’s overall aim to achieve global leadership in digital technology has shifted the domain of the country’s competition with the United States. Although the “Made in China 2025” initiative, along with the BRI subproject, the “Digital Silk Road” focus on the development of advanced technologies, the output of the innovations leaves an imprint on all the domains of rivalry between the two superpowers. China’s unsurpassable digital economy, its growing number of 5G connections, the investments in semiconductors and the surging number of AI companies are challenging the American economic and military dominance. The European Union is losing ground regarding economic competitiveness in the digital realm. The growing presence of Chinese high-tech enterprises also entails security risks. Although the European Union shares many of the United States’ concerns, EU member states avoid such open confrontations as banning Huawei with a national security order or other, equally severe measures of the trade war. Notwithstanding the pressure of the Trump administration, the European Union does not seem to take such concrete steps, even if the European Commission advised the member states to take additional security measures when procuring 5G networks. The digital competition between the US and China poses a huge threat to the EU, which is further enlarged by the fact that among the member states there is no unanimous attitude towards China. In this emerging “Tech Cold War” Europe is caught between the two rivals. The thesis seeks to examine the effects of the U.S.–China confrontation on the economy, defence policy and digital strategy of the European Union, and to define the European countries’ new role in a world dominated by the two superpowers. Although the emphasis is placed on digital strategy, it is essential to examine this issue in a broader context. In the analysis the economic and the military aspects are not neglected because the emergence of new technologies has economic and security dimensions, too, and they are all interrelated. On the other hand, it can be stated that nearly all measures taken by the opposing sides (including the escalating trade war) are the episodes of a larger battle that is fought for technological dominance. The hypothesis of the thesis is that the most effective tool for the European Union to break this new bipolar world order and to diminish its dependence on the two superpowers is to improve its long-term digital strategy that will also eliminate many security policy issues. At the same time, the EU should also join forces with other, non-member European states on the digital battleground, and strive for a new multipolarity. The thesis is divided into five chapters. After the Introduction the second chapter outlines the main attributes of the U.S.–China relations. The focus is on the digital competition between the two countries but a broader context needs to be provided to understand the driving force behind certain measures. The third chapter concentrates on the relations and tensions between the U.S. and the EU, and the latter’s China policy. China’s economic and digital development raises security risks for European countries within and without the Union, triggering various responses from the states. In this part of the thesis the European countries’ diverse attitude towards China is also presented. The fourth chapter surveys the European Union’s digital strategy, including its technological development and cybersecurity. The Conclusion recapitulates the major findings of the thesis, and measures the EU’s capacity to develop global digital standards in order to reduce its dependence on the two competing superpowers.

Intézmény

Budapesti Gazdasági Egyetem

Kar

Külkereskedelmi Kar

Tanszék

Nemzetközi Kapcsolatok Tanszék

Tudományterület/tudományág

NEM RÉSZLETEZETT

Szak

Nemzetközi Tanulmányok

Konzulens(ek)

Mű típusa:	diplomadolgozat (NEM RÉSZLETEZETT)
Kulcsszavak:	bipoláris világrend, digitális stratégia, kereskedelmi háború, technológiai hidegháború, védelempolitika
SWORD Depositor:	Archive User
Felhasználói azonosító szám (ID):	Archive User
Rekord készítés dátuma:	2021. Szep. 22. 08:16
Utolsó módosítás:	2022. Okt. 05. 15:16

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